2008 Presidential Race
Jun. 29th, 2008 05:43 am![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
chromodynamicsI've been meaning to make this post for a few days now.
Besides the usual rhetoric, and the Obama-Clinton "Unity" event, not much has happened in the contest, and so I have not made many comments. However, one interesting thing that did happen last Wednesday was that David Plouffe, Obama's campaign manager, gave a presentation to the press that detailed the campaign's targeted states for now.
On a separate but related note, my new favorite electoral projection sight is FiveThirtyEight, which does an amazing amount of polling analysis every day. Their discussion from June 26th of the above meeting (sorry there is no direct link) was very interesting, especially if you are an Obama supporter.
Besides the usual rhetoric, and the Obama-Clinton "Unity" event, not much has happened in the contest, and so I have not made many comments. However, one interesting thing that did happen last Wednesday was that David Plouffe, Obama's campaign manager, gave a presentation to the press that detailed the campaign's targeted states for now.
The list is very interesting:
According to their analysis, the probable Obama states are: California(55), Connecticut(7), Delaware(3), District of Columbia(3), Hawaii(4), Illinois(21), Maine(4), Maryland(10), Massachusetts(12), Minnesota(10), New Jersey(15), New York(31), Oregon(7), Rhode Island(4), Vermont(3), and Washington(11). That is 15 states and D.C., for a total of 200 EVs.
The probable McCain states are: Alabama(9), Arizona(10), Arkansas(6), Idaho(4), Kansas(6), Kentucky(8), Louisiana(9), Mississippi(6), Nebraska(5), Oklahoma(7), South Carolina(8), South Dakota(3), Tennessee(11), Texas(34), Utah(5), West Virginia(5), and Wyoming(3). That is 17 states, for a total of 139 EVs.
That leaves 18 states that they see as the most contested: Alaska(3), Colorado(9), Georgia(15), Florida(27), Indiana(11), Iowa(7), Michigan(17), Missouri(11), Montana(3), New Hampshire(4), New Mexico(5), Nevada(5), North Carolina(15), North Dakota(3), Ohio(20), Pennsylvania(21), Virginia(13), and Wisconsin(10).
Several of these states I feel Obama will most likely win, but the campaign is playing defense just in case (Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, and New Hampshire). However, the other 14 states were Bush states in the last election. There are a few on the list that he will most likely not win (Alaska, Georgia, North Dakota) and the campaign is targeting to help down-ballot, but a lot of them are very competitive.
According to their analysis, the probable Obama states are: California(55), Connecticut(7), Delaware(3), District of Columbia(3), Hawaii(4), Illinois(21), Maine(4), Maryland(10), Massachusetts(12), Minnesota(10), New Jersey(15), New York(31), Oregon(7), Rhode Island(4), Vermont(3), and Washington(11). That is 15 states and D.C., for a total of 200 EVs.
The probable McCain states are: Alabama(9), Arizona(10), Arkansas(6), Idaho(4), Kansas(6), Kentucky(8), Louisiana(9), Mississippi(6), Nebraska(5), Oklahoma(7), South Carolina(8), South Dakota(3), Tennessee(11), Texas(34), Utah(5), West Virginia(5), and Wyoming(3). That is 17 states, for a total of 139 EVs.
That leaves 18 states that they see as the most contested: Alaska(3), Colorado(9), Georgia(15), Florida(27), Indiana(11), Iowa(7), Michigan(17), Missouri(11), Montana(3), New Hampshire(4), New Mexico(5), Nevada(5), North Carolina(15), North Dakota(3), Ohio(20), Pennsylvania(21), Virginia(13), and Wisconsin(10).
Several of these states I feel Obama will most likely win, but the campaign is playing defense just in case (Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, and New Hampshire). However, the other 14 states were Bush states in the last election. There are a few on the list that he will most likely not win (Alaska, Georgia, North Dakota) and the campaign is targeting to help down-ballot, but a lot of them are very competitive.
On a separate but related note, my new favorite electoral projection sight is FiveThirtyEight, which does an amazing amount of polling analysis every day. Their discussion from June 26th of the above meeting (sorry there is no direct link) was very interesting, especially if you are an Obama supporter.