2008 Presidential Race

[chromodynamics]

On the Democratic side:
Hillary won in Arizona, Arkansas, California, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New York, Oklahoma, and Tennessee.

Obama won in Alabama, Alaska, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Georgia, Idaho, Illinois, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, New Mexico, North Dakota, and Utah.

So in the end Super Tuesday didn’t really prove decisive. Obama won more states, but it look like Hillary will win more delegates (though they are still counting so the total number hasn’t been decided yet). It looks like both campaigns accomplished what they hoped: Hillary took the more delegates but Obama is very close. Hillary won large among Hispanics and women; Obama won large with African-Americans, and seemed to take a lot of the former Edwards support.

My impression is that in the expectations game, Hillary wins, but by the slimmest of margins. She lost Missouri, which she hoped to win, and New Mexico, though both were extremely close. But she took Massachusetts even after Obama’s Kennedy endorsement, as well as Arizona. Obama’s camp had hoped for close contests in California and New York, but Hillary came out strong in both. We will see what further analysis by the pundits has to say, especially after the delegate counts are solid, and how Obama’s momentum is affected.

Both:
Surprisingly, the Super Tuesday results showed few surprises. The next few days will be spent analyzing the numbers for the subtler changes that may affect the race.

On the Republican side:
McCain won in Arizona, California, Connecticut, Delaware, Illinois, Missouri, New Jersey, New York, and Oklahoma.

Romney won in Alaska, Colorado, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Montana, North Dakota, and Utah.

Huckabee won in Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Tennessee, and West Virginia.

McCain clearly had a good night, even though he didn’t completely capture the nomination. Despite some recent polls, Romney wasn’t close in California. I think the only surprise of the night was how well Huckabee did in the south; both Romney and McCain would have like to have taken one of these states. The result is that this will continue to be a 3-way contest, which in the end means that McCain will eventually win, just not as soon as he would like.

I think the big loser of the night was Romney. He really needed to take California, or a few states in the conservative south, to gain the momentum, force Huckabee out, and really challenge McCain. He will continue, but it is unlikely now that he will gain the nomination. McCain for his part still has to worry about the conservative, who split for Huckabee and Romney in most cases. McCain will really need this vote come the general election.

Comments

[chromodynamics.livejournal.com]

Indeed, the Con would be totally awesome!