2008 Presidential Race
Jan. 16th, 2008 10:09 am![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
chromodynamicsOn the Democratic side:
The debate in Las Vegas was pretty tame, clearly an attempt to calm the acerbic debate of the last week. Each of the three scored well, with no major arguments or mistakes. At this point, the race in Nevada is neck-and-neck for Hillary and Obama. Voting is Saturday.
This post on DailyKos has some recent polls in Florida and other large Super Tuesday states that demonstrate why Obama needs to do well in Nevada and South Carolina. It also lists all the states that are having Democratic contests on Super Tuesday, Feb. 5th.
On the Republican side:
Romney wins Michigan. Romney had 39%, McCain 30%, and Huck 16%. He won by a healthy margin, which means everyone is talking about the chaos (MSNBC: No GOP anchor in sight, CNN:Romney's Michigan win shakes up GOP race,Politico: Romney victory scrambles GOP field, and I'm sure many others). The consensus of these articles is that Huckabee represents the social conservative wing of the Republican party, Romney the economic conservatives, and McCain the foreign policy conservatives and independents that lean Republican. How these will be stitched up back into a coalition again is anyone's guess.
Independent voting was down, only 25% of the electorate (it was over 35% when McCain won Michigan in 2000). Only 7% identified as Democrats, so crossover was not really a factor.
On to South Carolina on Saturday. Huck had been polling well, but McCain has taken over the lead in the most recent polls. We will have to see how Michigan changes these numbers. Nevada also has it's Republican caucus that day, but it is overshadowed by the much more important SC contest.
One pundit raised an interesting possibility: what if Thompson wins SC, and Giuliani wins Florida? The Republicans would have five primary contests with five different winners. I don't think it is likely to happen, but it would definitely be wild if it did.
The debate in Las Vegas was pretty tame, clearly an attempt to calm the acerbic debate of the last week. Each of the three scored well, with no major arguments or mistakes. At this point, the race in Nevada is neck-and-neck for Hillary and Obama. Voting is Saturday.
This post on DailyKos has some recent polls in Florida and other large Super Tuesday states that demonstrate why Obama needs to do well in Nevada and South Carolina. It also lists all the states that are having Democratic contests on Super Tuesday, Feb. 5th.
On the Republican side:
Romney wins Michigan. Romney had 39%, McCain 30%, and Huck 16%. He won by a healthy margin, which means everyone is talking about the chaos (MSNBC: No GOP anchor in sight, CNN:Romney's Michigan win shakes up GOP race,Politico: Romney victory scrambles GOP field, and I'm sure many others). The consensus of these articles is that Huckabee represents the social conservative wing of the Republican party, Romney the economic conservatives, and McCain the foreign policy conservatives and independents that lean Republican. How these will be stitched up back into a coalition again is anyone's guess.
Independent voting was down, only 25% of the electorate (it was over 35% when McCain won Michigan in 2000). Only 7% identified as Democrats, so crossover was not really a factor.
On to South Carolina on Saturday. Huck had been polling well, but McCain has taken over the lead in the most recent polls. We will have to see how Michigan changes these numbers. Nevada also has it's Republican caucus that day, but it is overshadowed by the much more important SC contest.
One pundit raised an interesting possibility: what if Thompson wins SC, and Giuliani wins Florida? The Republicans would have five primary contests with five different winners. I don't think it is likely to happen, but it would definitely be wild if it did.
(no subject)
Date: 2008-01-16 03:36 pm (UTC)Romney confuses me. I watched the Republican YouTube debates, and he came off as a greasy slimeball. I thought he'd either be dominating everything, thus proving that I don't get that mindset, or trailing everything, because of the obvious ick.
(no subject)
Date: 2008-01-16 04:36 pm (UTC)I'm not a big debate watcher. I prefer to read the analysis after and see what everyone else is saying about the debate, rather than watch the debates themselves. As for Romney as a "greasy slimeball", I think that a certain mindset actually appreciates that quality. I have seen it on display in many a corporate meeting :) . Unfortunately, it gives many other people the creeps.