2008 Presidential Race

[chromodynamics]

On the Democratic side:
The issue of racism I highlighted yesterday, and also sexism, between surrogates of the Hillary and Obama camps was the main political topic yesterday in the media. danijo1 linked to this excellent Time article on the wrangling. However, this morning, it appears that both the Hillary and Obama camps have smartened up to the possible damage that going down this road can cause (the hope of feminism battling the dream of civil rights), and are seeking a truce (and here). The debate in Las Vegas this evening should be very interesting (there will be candidate-to-candidate questions!).

In a related note, I found this interesting thought on First Read on MSNBC: "The Rangel and Johnson criticisms" (supporters of Hillary who have criticized Obama during the recent debate) "could be examples of the generational divide Obama might be facing inside the African-American community. The older leaders may be struggling with believing Obama is a rightful heir to the civil-rights leaders and that he is somehow electable."

A new California poll shows Hillary with a 16% lead over Obama in that delegate-rich state. With California, New York, and New Jersey all on Super Tuesday (Feb. 5), I think Obama really needs the win in Nevada on Saturday to build momentum and begin truly challenging Hillary in these important states.

Yesterday I mentioned that the Hispanic vote that would have once been Richardson's will have a big effect on the contest in Nevada (and other Western states further down the line), and that it was "generally thought" that Hillary would have the advantage with this important group. Today, MSNBC has an article that highlights why Obama may have a tougher road earning the support of Latinos. (I just wanted to show that my previous statement was indeed an informed opinion, and not general b.s. :D )

On the Republican side:
Today is Michigan. I won't post the results as I'm sure your favorite media outlet will provide that information, but the analysis of the results will be topic number one tomorrow morning.

Yesterday I mentioned that progressive bloggers were promoting the idea that Michigan Democrats should instead vote for Romney in the Republican open primary today. Now there is word that the Michigan Attorney General, a Republican, is sueing DailyKos specifically for this tactic, claiming it is "voter fraud".

In the same California poll mentioned above, it was McCain at 20%, Romney at 16%, Giuliani at 14% and Huck at 13%. However, CNN's spin on the poll was how much more indecisive the support was for the Republicans (61% said they haven't made a decision) versus the Democrats (62% have made their decision).

Here is something that surprised me: Giuliani is trailing McCain in the latest poll in Florida, thought it is withing the margin of error, 22% to 20%. Huck and Romney are also within that margin of error at 19% each. I figured with the resources and focus he has been giving Florida while the other candidates are battling in the other states, Giuliani would be holding a lead of some kind.

The numbers above in both of these important states are very close, and I think highlight how much is at stake with Michigan and South Carolina, and the momentum they could lend to one or two of the candidates. I see four possibilites: McCain wins in both Michigan and South Carolina ( I then see him as the favorite in Florida and for the nomination); Romney wins Michigan and McCain wins SC (I give the nod to McCain in Florida in this scenario too); McCain wins Michigan and Huck wins SC, leading to an epic battle in Florida between the two with Giuliani as the spoiler; or Romney wins Michigan and Huck win SC. I personally am rooting for the last option, because Florida will then be chaos, which would probably continue into Super Tuesday.

After linking about several articles about "dark arts" in South Carolina yesterday, today Politico features an article whose author argues that McCain is not receiving even legitimate scrutiny in Michigan, therefore making his run this year very easy there. It is interesting that there is this difference between the two contests. I have my opinion as to why, which I hinted at yesterday, but I would be interested in hearing others.

Comments

[misscake]

This article highlights my lingering concerns about Hillary. Specifically, "...Politico found widespread belief among current and former Democratic statewide officials that Obama is the more electable candidate with their electorates. These politicians also frequently registered a fear that Clinton’s personality and past history make her too polarizing to win independent and Republican-leaning voters." And although they seemed to have agreed to the truce, I wonder how much damage has been done and whether it can be fixed.

I'm kind of anxious to see the Michigan results for two reasons: 1) to see how many Dems crossed over and 2) on the hope that Romney is out after this round. As much as I like the idea of chaos in the party, I worry about its unpredictable nature. And Romney gives me the total creeps.

[chromodynamics.livejournal.com]

Yes, that article is a good one. It reminds me of the quote I pointed to yesterday, that the Hillary and Obama might damage each other enough that they will be forced to run with each other on the same ticket.

And it looks like they have already called the race for Romney. He is about 9% up without about half the precincts reporting. I too am interested to see the numbers on the Dems and independents that voted in the Republican primary. Sorry about the creeps!