Jan. 24th, 2008

chromodynamics: (Bush and Baby)
On the Democratic side:
The largest issue continues to be how much ill will seems to now exist between Obama and both Clintons after the last South Carolina debate. Of course, I think the increased nastiness is still tame as compared to many past campaigns (for instance, there has been an exchange of negative television ads yet), and I hope it stays that way.

Obama continues to lead Hillary in the recent polls in South Carolina, and in some by double digits.

I haven’t seen a lot of press dedicated to it yet, but how will Florida affect the Democratic race? Their primary is next Tuesday just like the Republican’s. However, since Florida moved it to before Super Tuesday, they have been stripped of their delegates to the convention, and all the candidates have pledged to not campaign in the state. Still, Florida is such an important state, especially after the 2000 election, I don’t see how it can be ignored completely, and I'm sure we will here more about it after SC on Saturday.  Recent polls have Hillary up, ranging from 8-38%.

On the Republican side:
Thompson dropped out of the race on Tuesday. It seems his only lasting effect on the race was taking support away from Huck in South Carolina, ensuring a McCain win.

Huck is looking for ways to save money in the run-up to Super Tuesday. He has all but given up on Florida, and has been campaigning in Georgia and other Southern states instead. The CW is that this helps Romney in the Florida contest on Tuesday, and indeed it looks like Florida is going to be between McCain and Romney, with Giuliani fading fast. The debate tonight should be acrimonious, as Romney needs to stop McCain now, and Giuliani needs a win to even stay in the race.

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