chromodynamics (![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png)
chromodynamics) wrote2008-01-14 10:27 am
chromodynamics) wrote2008-01-14 10:27 am
Entry tags:
2008 Presidential Race
This weekend when talking with C, she mentioned that I should blog about the current state of the presidential race as I see it. I must confess that I enjoy following politics, and often read many sites repeatedly throughout the day (MSNBC, CNN, Politico, and DailyKos mainly). So I will start doing so, in an attempt to point out the most interesting aspects that I see as the election continues.
Boy, I did have a lot to say.
On the Democratic side:
Clinton appeared on the Meet the Press for the entire hour on Sunday. So far the biggest story from that appearance has been about race, whether Hillary made comments that demeaned the role MLK played in the civil rights movement, or whether Obama's camp is saying that Hillary demeaned MLK in order to make race more of an issue in the primaries. Look for this story to feature large today, and possibly much longer. First Read on MSNBC makes a very interesting point: "Women and African Americans are the two most reliable Democratic voting blocs, and one of them will be greatly disappointed (and hurt) when we finally have a Dem nominee. How many unaffiliated Democrats are biting their nails in nervousness wondering if this developing rift between women and blacks will heal in time for the general? Most likely, this all means that whoever comes out on top -- Clinton or Obama -- is going to have a lot of work to do to reach out to the losing candidate. Will the two have no choice but to run with each other on the same ticket?"
Also, as I mentioned to C, though Hillary and Obama have won about the same number of Democratic convention delegates from Iowa and New Hampshire (Obama 25, Clinton, 24, Edwards 18), Hillary is still ahead by quite a bit thanks to pledged super-delegate support. Super-delegates are basically leaders withing the Democratic party (Senators, Governors, Democratic party bosses, etc.) that each get a vote at the convention. If you count in the super-delegates who have announced support for a candidate (and they of course may not vote this way, but assuming they do), Hillary leads in the delegate race with 183 to Obama's 78 and Edwards' 52. A total of 2025 delegates wins the nomination. TIME has an excellent site that is tracking the delegate race on both sides.
That being said, the big news for Obama going into this weekend had been the number of people who have given him their support over the past few days: Nebraska Sen. Ben Nelson, Missouri Sen. Claire McCaskill, Arizona Gov. Janet Napolitano, and SD Sen. Tim Johnson to name a few. He is still behind Clinton, but these help give him some momentum going into Nevada and South Carolina. MSNBC is tracking how many so-called Red State democrats have thrown their support for Hillary (18 of 80) and Obama (15 of 43). I think this will continue to be an interesting number to watch, especially after talking with C this weekend. Who is the more centrist of possible Democratic nominees, Hillary who inherits the mantel of the centrist policies of her husband, or Obama who has been using much more anti-partisan rhetoric and has therefore greater appeal for independents?
For Edwards, he is counting on South Carolina to move him back up into the first tier of candidates. I personally don't see it; I think Obama is going to take South Carolina. I really don't see Edwards winning this contest, and the pressure will become even greater for him to drop out if he doesn't win SC (and especially if he places third). He is in a very interesting position as I see it: if he drops out, I think much of those who support him will support Obama, and may be the deciding factor in him winning the nomination. If Edwards stays in, however, he may control enough delegates to be the kingmaker in the end, parleying that position into the Vice Presidential slot again, something I don't think will happen otherwise.
The next contest for the Democrats is the Nevada caucus on the Saturday. Lots of interesting dynamics are happening here. Clinton has generally been ahead in the polling, though not a lot of polls have been taken lately thanks to the misstep in New Hampshire [What did go wrong there?]. Obama won the support of the Culinary Workers Union, which helps him a great deal and give him some momentum. [An interesting sidebar to this endorsement is that a teacher's union in Nevada is sueing in federal court over at-large precincts, caucus sites along the strip that allow workers who cannot take the time off to get home to caucus close to where they work. As you would guess, most of these workers are member of the culinary union, which the teacher's union argues is unfair to there workers who cannot get home but have no special sites close to where they work.] However, with Richardson's departure, it will be interesting to see who gains the Hispanic-American vote, which in the past has generally been thought to favor Hillary more than Obama [though the sidebar previously mentioned may give Obama an opening here]. Only time will tell.
Clinton appeared on the Meet the Press for the entire hour on Sunday. So far the biggest story from that appearance has been about race, whether Hillary made comments that demeaned the role MLK played in the civil rights movement, or whether Obama's camp is saying that Hillary demeaned MLK in order to make race more of an issue in the primaries. Look for this story to feature large today, and possibly much longer. First Read on MSNBC makes a very interesting point: "Women and African Americans are the two most reliable Democratic voting blocs, and one of them will be greatly disappointed (and hurt) when we finally have a Dem nominee. How many unaffiliated Democrats are biting their nails in nervousness wondering if this developing rift between women and blacks will heal in time for the general? Most likely, this all means that whoever comes out on top -- Clinton or Obama -- is going to have a lot of work to do to reach out to the losing candidate. Will the two have no choice but to run with each other on the same ticket?"
Also, as I mentioned to C, though Hillary and Obama have won about the same number of Democratic convention delegates from Iowa and New Hampshire (Obama 25, Clinton, 24, Edwards 18), Hillary is still ahead by quite a bit thanks to pledged super-delegate support. Super-delegates are basically leaders withing the Democratic party (Senators, Governors, Democratic party bosses, etc.) that each get a vote at the convention. If you count in the super-delegates who have announced support for a candidate (and they of course may not vote this way, but assuming they do), Hillary leads in the delegate race with 183 to Obama's 78 and Edwards' 52. A total of 2025 delegates wins the nomination. TIME has an excellent site that is tracking the delegate race on both sides.
That being said, the big news for Obama going into this weekend had been the number of people who have given him their support over the past few days: Nebraska Sen. Ben Nelson, Missouri Sen. Claire McCaskill, Arizona Gov. Janet Napolitano, and SD Sen. Tim Johnson to name a few. He is still behind Clinton, but these help give him some momentum going into Nevada and South Carolina. MSNBC is tracking how many so-called Red State democrats have thrown their support for Hillary (18 of 80) and Obama (15 of 43). I think this will continue to be an interesting number to watch, especially after talking with C this weekend. Who is the more centrist of possible Democratic nominees, Hillary who inherits the mantel of the centrist policies of her husband, or Obama who has been using much more anti-partisan rhetoric and has therefore greater appeal for independents?
For Edwards, he is counting on South Carolina to move him back up into the first tier of candidates. I personally don't see it; I think Obama is going to take South Carolina. I really don't see Edwards winning this contest, and the pressure will become even greater for him to drop out if he doesn't win SC (and especially if he places third). He is in a very interesting position as I see it: if he drops out, I think much of those who support him will support Obama, and may be the deciding factor in him winning the nomination. If Edwards stays in, however, he may control enough delegates to be the kingmaker in the end, parleying that position into the Vice Presidential slot again, something I don't think will happen otherwise.
The next contest for the Democrats is the Nevada caucus on the Saturday. Lots of interesting dynamics are happening here. Clinton has generally been ahead in the polling, though not a lot of polls have been taken lately thanks to the misstep in New Hampshire [What did go wrong there?]. Obama won the support of the Culinary Workers Union, which helps him a great deal and give him some momentum. [An interesting sidebar to this endorsement is that a teacher's union in Nevada is sueing in federal court over at-large precincts, caucus sites along the strip that allow workers who cannot take the time off to get home to caucus close to where they work. As you would guess, most of these workers are member of the culinary union, which the teacher's union argues is unfair to there workers who cannot get home but have no special sites close to where they work.] However, with Richardson's departure, it will be interesting to see who gains the Hispanic-American vote, which in the past has generally been thought to favor Hillary more than Obama [though the sidebar previously mentioned may give Obama an opening here]. Only time will tell.
On the Republican side:
It now looks like McCain has front-runner status, at least for today.
In Michigan, which happens tomorrow, some interesting dynamics are playing out. I have seen some who say it is going to be a close battle between Romney and Huck, and some who say it is going to be a close battle between Romney and McCain, and some who say Romney is leading. Whatever the case, this state is clearly a must win for Romney for him to stay viable. He has pulled his advertising from the next big contests, South Carolina and Florida, to focus completely on Michigan. Which is exactly how many progressive activists would have it: they are encouraging Michigan Democrats to vote in the Republican primary (it is open to all) for Romney. [The Michigan Democratic primary is meaningless: Michigan has been stripped of it's delegates since it moved it's contest up so early, Obama and Edwards pulled their names from the ballots, and no Democratic candidate is campaigning there.] The way the activists see it, if Romney wins in Michigan, it only feeds the chaos that is the Republican nomination. Still, some feel that McCain has the advantage in this situation, as the independents who would normally vote for Obama will come over to him instead.
The next big contest after Michigan is the South Carolina primary on Saturday. No recent Republican presidential nominee has lost SC. It is shaping up as a battle between McCain and Huck, between national security concerns (especially amongst the large military retiree community) and social conservative issues (especially amongst the large evangalical Christian community). Also, this is a make a break contest for Thompson. He knows it and has been stepping up his criticism of the other candidates, but I don't see anything happening for him, and my guess is that he will leave soon after the contest. I think that mostly this helps Huck, though Thompson may in turn spoil him from the SC victory. Don't forget that it was in SC that the Republican presidential nomination started to get really dirty in 2000, especially against McCain. Has it started again? An even better article is here, demonstrating some of the worst that is happening. My favorite quote: "Evangelical Christians, or at least their fringe groups, seem to be especially practiced at anonymous smears (possibly for the same reason that the worst wars are often religious ones: sins are easier to forgive if you know that God is on your side)."
Then on to Florida on January 29th, where Giuliani has put all his eggs. Also, it looks like Giuliani may have some money problems, as several of his highest level staffers have voluntarily forgone paychecks.
So Michigan is make or break for Romney; either Michigan or South Carolina is make or break for McCain; either Michigan or South Carolina is make or break for Huckabee; South Carolina is make or break for Thompson; and Florida is make or break for Giuliani. And by Florida, only six or seven states will have held their primaries/caucuses.
It now looks like McCain has front-runner status, at least for today.
In Michigan, which happens tomorrow, some interesting dynamics are playing out. I have seen some who say it is going to be a close battle between Romney and Huck, and some who say it is going to be a close battle between Romney and McCain, and some who say Romney is leading. Whatever the case, this state is clearly a must win for Romney for him to stay viable. He has pulled his advertising from the next big contests, South Carolina and Florida, to focus completely on Michigan. Which is exactly how many progressive activists would have it: they are encouraging Michigan Democrats to vote in the Republican primary (it is open to all) for Romney. [The Michigan Democratic primary is meaningless: Michigan has been stripped of it's delegates since it moved it's contest up so early, Obama and Edwards pulled their names from the ballots, and no Democratic candidate is campaigning there.] The way the activists see it, if Romney wins in Michigan, it only feeds the chaos that is the Republican nomination. Still, some feel that McCain has the advantage in this situation, as the independents who would normally vote for Obama will come over to him instead.
The next big contest after Michigan is the South Carolina primary on Saturday. No recent Republican presidential nominee has lost SC. It is shaping up as a battle between McCain and Huck, between national security concerns (especially amongst the large military retiree community) and social conservative issues (especially amongst the large evangalical Christian community). Also, this is a make a break contest for Thompson. He knows it and has been stepping up his criticism of the other candidates, but I don't see anything happening for him, and my guess is that he will leave soon after the contest. I think that mostly this helps Huck, though Thompson may in turn spoil him from the SC victory. Don't forget that it was in SC that the Republican presidential nomination started to get really dirty in 2000, especially against McCain. Has it started again? An even better article is here, demonstrating some of the worst that is happening. My favorite quote: "Evangelical Christians, or at least their fringe groups, seem to be especially practiced at anonymous smears (possibly for the same reason that the worst wars are often religious ones: sins are easier to forgive if you know that God is on your side)."
Then on to Florida on January 29th, where Giuliani has put all his eggs. Also, it looks like Giuliani may have some money problems, as several of his highest level staffers have voluntarily forgone paychecks.
So Michigan is make or break for Romney; either Michigan or South Carolina is make or break for McCain; either Michigan or South Carolina is make or break for Huckabee; South Carolina is make or break for Thompson; and Florida is make or break for Giuliani. And by Florida, only six or seven states will have held their primaries/caucuses.
Boy, I did have a lot to say.
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Also, ♥.
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Hi, I'm Christine, a friend of C's.
This is a great round up of the current situation. And I was thinking the exact same point you make in your first paragraph about how the situation between Obama and Clinton may split the party. Time has an interesting article on that topic here.
Also, am friending you to keep an eye on your future political blogging. I'll try to keep the fan-girling to a minimum.
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Yes, it looks like a lot in the media are playing up the possible Democratic Party split. However, it appears this morning that Clinton and Obama may have smartened up and are now trying to deflate the issue. I'll have more on that later today.
And thanks for friending me! I have friended you back, and look forward to reading your lj as well!
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So, hi! Nice to meet you. I'm Meredith.
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Thank you for friending me, I too look forward to reading your lj. I only hope I live up to C's pimpage. :)